Who Will Be Nominated?! Broadway.com Ranks the Top Tony Award Musical Categories

The spring season on Broadway has officially come to a close, and you know what that means: It’s Tony time! We can’t wait to see who will be nominated on April 29, and after painstakingly analyzing every musical of the season (just kidding, it was so much fun), we’ve created a Tony forecast, including frontrunners, hopefuls and a Broadway.com Shout Out to one show we hope the Tony nominators won’t forget. Check out our Tony cheat sheet for the top musical categories!



BEST MUSICAL

FRONTRUNNERS

Left to Right:
A Gentleman’s Guide to Love and Murder — A clever book, a catchy Gilbert-and-Sullivan-esque score and a winning premise? Sounds like a guaranteed Tony nomination.
Aladdin — Every bit as magical as the 1992 movie, the Disney crowd-pleaser is sure to snag a number of nods on nomination day, including a coveted slot in the Best Musical category.
After Midnight  — Using existing music from Duke Ellington and his contemporaries, the jazzy revue scored raves among critics and crowds alike, and it’s got a definite shot to win big this season.

IN THE MIX

Left to Right:
Beautiful: The Carole King Musical  — This heartfelt bio musical based on the life of the singer-songwriter is a strong contender, but a Tony nod isn’t necessarily in the bag.
Bullets Over Broadway — Is this romp based on the riotous Woody Allen movie dazzling enough to score a nomination? It could happen, but it’s not a sure bet.
If/Then  — A new collaboration by Pulitzer Prize-winning composers Tom Kitt and Brian Yorkey could be just the ticket to some Tony love.
Rocky — He might be an underdog in the ring, but the sweet and inspiring story of Rocky Balboa is a real contender in this year’s race.

BROADWAY.COM SHOUTOUT

The Bridges of Madison County — We’re smitten with this sweeping and new musical, featuring a lush score by Jason Robert Brown and a heartbreaking performance by Kelli O’Hara.

ALSO POSSIBLE
A Night with Janis Joplin, Big Fish, First Date, Soul Doctor.



BEST MUSICAL REVIVAL

Left to Right: Cabaret, Hedwig and the Angry Inch, Les Miserables and Violet
Four eligible shows, four slots. Will they all get nominated, or will one get left in the dust? Luckily, they're all strong contenders in this year’s race. Cabaret is an exact replica of the 1998 Tony-winning revival, which could annoy some nominators. Les Miz, on the other hand, is a fresh take on a classic. Meanwhile, Hedwig and Violet are both off-Broadway hits finally getting a shot on the Main Stem. Our guess is that all four shows will get honored. 



BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL

FRONTRUNNERS

Left: Robert L. Freedman, A Gentleman’s Guide to Love and Murder — For a musical about knocking off an entire family, this Broadway newcomer’s script is wildly fun.
Right: Chad Beguelin, Aladdin — Incorporating some classic lines from the original movie (“Do you trust me?”) and some funny new material, a nomination for this book seems like a lock.

IN THE MIX

Left to Right:
Douglas McGrath, Beautiful: The Carole King Musical — The story behind the music of Carole King is heartwarming and packed with silly one-liners, so we wouldn’t be surprised if the script snagged a nomination.
Thomas Meehan and Sylvester Stallone, Rocky — The script has been pared down significantly from the original 1976 movie, but this tender and funny book packs a punch.
Brian Yorkey, If/Then — Yorkey brings both humor and heartbreak to two dual stories of a thirty-something woman living in New York in this new musical.
Marsha Norman, The Bridges of Madison County — The Pulitzer Prize-winning playwright’s understated book lets the songs be the star of this musical, but that doesn’t mean it will be overlooked for a nod.
John August, Big Fish — August wrote the heartfelt film adaptation of Big Fish, and his first Broadway book might also score him his first nomination.

BROADWAY.COM SHOUTOUT

Austin Winsberg, First Date — This fizzy tuner had us rolling in the aisles last fall, and we hope its punchline packed book won’t be forgotten on nomination day.

ALSO POSSIBLE
A Night with Janis Joplin, Soul Doctor.



BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

FRONTRUNNERS

Left: Steven Lutvak and Robert L. Freedman, A Gentleman’s Guide to Love and Murder — This delightfully silly operetta by two Broadway newbies couldn’t be more charming.
Right: Jason Robert Brown, The Bridges of Madison County — It’s vibrant, it’s ethereal, it’s haunting, it’s gorgeous. And it’s going to get a Tony nomination.

IN THE MIX

Left to Right:
Chad Beguelin and Alan Menken, Aladdin (not pictured: the late Howard Ashman) — The film won an Oscar for Best Original Score in 1992, but that doesn't necessarily mean the revamped score has an edge on the competition.
Tom Kitt and Brian Yorkey, If/Then — After winning the hearts of the Pulitzer Prize committee with their last hit Next to Normal, this duo could snag a nomination.
Stephen Flaherty (music) and Lynn Ahrens (lyrics), Rocky — It’s starkly different from their Tony-winning Ragtime score, but this composing duo still has a shot at the gold.

BROADWAY.COM SHOUTOUT

Andrew Lippa, Big Fish — From the whimsical tune “Fight the Dragons” to the heartwrenching ballad “I Don’t Need a Roof,” we’re still humming the score from this now-closed Broadway musical.

ALSO POSSIBLE
First Date



BEST DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL

FRONTRUNNERS

Left: Darko Tresnjak, A Gentleman’s Guide to Love and Murder — From an ice-skating scene to an attack of killer bees, this musical’s clever staging is sure to score a nomination for Best Direction.
Right: Casey Nicholaw, Aladdin — With magical moments in “Friend Like Me” and “A Whole New World” you have to see to believe, the Tony-winning director of The Book of Mormon has a nom in the bag.

IN THE MIX

Left to Right:
Warren Carlyle, After Midnight — The vibrant world of the Cotton Club comes alive in this new revue, but a nod for Carlyle isn’t necessarily a lock.
Michael Mayer, Hedwig and the Angry Inch — The internationally ignored song stylist is ignored no more, thanks to Mayer’s inventive new updates—is it enough to snag a nomination?
Alex Timbers, Rocky — The 20-minute fight scene alone should be enough to get Timbers on the ballot, but the competition is rough!
Bartlett Sher, The Bridges of Madison County — Beautiful stagescapes make Sher’s direction a contender, but will it stand out from the crowd?

BROADWAY.COM SHOUTOUT

Laurence Connor and James Powell, Les Miserables — The directing duo’s brand new take on a Broadway favorite, complete with high-tech projections (and no turntable), gets our vote.

ALSO POSSIBLE
Marc Bruni, Beautiful; Michael Greif, If/Then; Susan Stroman, Bullets Over Broadway; Susan Stroman, Big Fish; Leigh Silverman, Violet



BEST CHOREOGRAPHY

FRONTRUNNERS

Left to Right:
Warren Carlyle, After Midnight — After getting snubbed for A Christmas Story, Chaplin and Edwin Drood in 2013, this could be Carlyle’s year!
Steven Hoggett and Kelly Devine, Rocky — The one-two punch of boxing choreography by Hoggett and more traditional choreography by Devine could be a Tony knockout.
Casey Nicholaw, Aladdin — Audiences leap to their feet after the showstopping number “Friend Like Me,” and it could be enough to get Nicholaw his fourth nomination for Best Choreography.

IN THE MIX

Susan Stroman for Big Fish or Bullets Over Broadway — A three-time Tony winner for Best Choreography, Stroman might be earning another nod for either her joyous fall musical or current gangster tap extravaganza. Or both!

BROADWAY.COM SHOUTOUT

Spencer Liff, Hedwig and the Angry Inch — The program calls it “musical staging,” but Neil Patrick Harris’ frenetic and aerobic dance moves definitely deserve a mention.

ALSO POSSIBLE
Josh Prince, Beautiful; Larry Keigwin, If/Then

Stay tuned for more Tony cheat sheets!