Our Editor-in-Chief Predicts the 2007 Tony Award Winners

It seems that this year, everyone has an opinion on who will win a Tony. In fact, the number of pundits who are willing to put their opinions on the line has almost doubled over the past few years. And if you take a look at their predictions, you'll see a lot of sameness in some categories which can make them seem deceptively like sure things don't forget that this same crew-myself included-all picked Wicked to beat Avenue Q for Best Musical a few years back. In compiling my 2007 predictions, I tried to not only offer up who I think will win, but also lay out some of the thinking behind it and propose different scenarios. Along those lines, I've divided the categories into the tough head-scratchers that are completely up for grabs, the two-horse races and the sure things. Then again, nothing's a sure thing, so use your own thinking cap as well! Best of luck…and may all your own predictions win!

If you're betting the house on the Tonys, these are the categories where you should proceed with caution. Believe me, the Tony accountants over at Lutz & Carr are counting the ballots with care in these seven races.

Best Leading Actress in a Play
Honestly, anyone but Swoosie Kurtz, whose Heartbreak House closed way too long ago, could take it. Vanessa Redgrave, whose Year of Magical Thinking work has too often been compared to a books-on-tape performance, is also pretty much a long shot. That leaves former front-runner Eve Best A Moon for the Misbegotten living legend Angela Lansbury Deuce and Julie White, who will most be asked to give an acceptance speech at Radio City and it will, I also predict, be hilarious!. Prediction: Julie White, The Little Dog Laughed

Best Revival of a Musical
The Apple Tree didn't deserve the nomination yes, I would have preferred to see Les Miz in its place. I once saw this as a race between 110 in the Shade and Company, but I'm now going out on a limb and predicting a win for A Chorus Line. Like Company the safer bet, was it the kind of reinvention that typically would grab this category? No, but nobody wanted a reinvention of this beloved show. I'm betting that producer John Breglio's connections and the show's tour-ability will push it to a win. Prediction: A Chorus Line

Best Theatrical Event
Downtown quasi-legends Kiki and Herb's brief Broadway stint which lacked some of their signature spark or Jay Johnson and his puppets? Wow, the producers of Martin Short: Fame Becomes Me must be kicking themselves for not vying for qualification in this category! As it is, most people I know are predicting a win for Jay Johnson: My Two and Only but voted for Kiki and Herb: Alive on Broadway as did I. The last time I heard such talk, Idina Menzel beat out some hefty leading ladies for Wicked. Still, I think Jay Johnson is ultimately the safer choice and will probably win. Prediction: Jay Johnson: The Two and Only

Best Featured Actor in a Play
The two guys from Radio Golf Anthony Chisholm and John Earl Jelks will cancel themselves out, as will the two guys from The Coast of Utopia Billy Crudup and Ethan Hawke, leaving newbie Stark Sands the winner for his moving work as a doomed soldier in Journey's End? That's one of several scenarios I've heard. Voters do love giving Tonys to characters who die, and the current war only strengthens the emotional pull of Sands' work… Still, I say the race is ultimately between August Wilson regular Chisholm and Crudup, with movie star Crudup winning for his third nominated performance in a handful of years. Prediction: Billy Crudup, The Coast of Utopia

Best Choreography
Most of my colleagues are calling a first Tony for modern dance icon Bill T. Jones for Spring Awakening. That'd be nice, but it'd also be a highly unusual choice for Tony voters, who might have a hard time remembering any of his subtle work. I'll probably regret this, but I'm going to instead latch onto the thinking that the super-slick Mary Poppins will enjoy one of its few wins of the night for a series of show-stopping dance numbers by co-choreographers Matthew Bourne and Stephen Mear. Then again, don't e-mail me if Rob Ashford turns up a surprise winner for Curtains which some voters might not want to see go home completely empty-handed. Prediction: Matthew Bourne and Stephen Mear, Mary Poppins

Best Orchestrations
A hot race in…Orchestrations?! Really?! Well, yeah, kind of. You see, most people are calling an easy win for Duncan Sheik, who is assured a win in the Best Score category alongside lyricist Steven Sater. And everyone points to rocker Billy Joel, who won for Best Orchestrations in 2003 for the brilliant Movin' Out, almost in the same breath as predicting a win for Sheik. But Joel wasn't eligible for score, making this category the only place voters could acknowledge his work in the creation of the show. Although Sheik's work is gorgeous, I feel voters might look at the small onstage band and hear the simple folky tunes and just not quite get it. Seven-time nominee Jonathan Tunick one win for Titanic, however, received heaps of praise for making Kurt Weill's songs so accessible in LoveMusik, and is my risky prediction. Prediction: Jonathan Tunick, LoveMusik

Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Yes, even design categories can get competitive. Will voters lean towards Bob Crowley's immense Mary Poppins creation, in which a life-size house not to mention the title character! flies into the air effortlessly or Christine Jones' conceptual playing field for the young stars of Spring Awakening? Although Crowley already has three Tonys Carousel, Aida, The History Boys, a fact that could give newcomer Jones an edge, his Poppins is truly a jaw-dropper and should bring him a fourth. Prediction: Bob Crowley, Mary Poppins

Jersey boy Christian Hoff trumping Tony favorite Jim Dale in 2006? Avenue Q winning over Wicked in 2004? There are always Tony wins that make pundits look positively clueless. Here are nine 2007 Tony races that are most primed for a surprise.

Best Leading Actor in a Play
Prediction: Frank Langella, for breathing life into a well-known public figure without ever veering into cartoon territory in Frost/Nixon.
Possible Spoiler: Liev Schreiber gave Eric Bogosian's past-its-expiration-date Talk Radio a new reason to live. And he's always good.

Best Featured Actress in a Play
Prediction: Martha Plimpton, who was conceived during the Broadway run of Hair !, has become a welcome presence on the scene in the past few years and should win for playing two parts in The Coast of Utopia.
Possible Spoiler: Plimpton's well-liked Utopia co-star Jennifer Ehle, a winner in 2000 for The Real Thing.

Best Leading Actor in a Musical
Prediction: Although Company lead Raul Esparza has only been on the scene for seven years, he's turned just as many memorable performances. This is his year.
Possible Spoiler: David Hyde Pierce is a delightful guy both onstage in Curtains and offstage. And nice guys don't always finish last.

Best Leading Actress in a Musical
Prediction: It's already been a long journey for Christine Ebersole and Grey Gardens, and the Tony Award always seemed the proper pot of gold at the end. Despite some great competition, she'll win.
Possible Spoiler: With six nominations and four past wins, Tony voters love them some Audra McDonald 110 in the Shade.

Best Featured Actor in a Musical
Prediction: John Gallagher Jr. for Spring Awakening, especially since Tony voters also saw him nail a showy role as a tortured teen in last season's Rabbit Hole.
Possible Spoiler: David Pittu is incredibly respected in the theater world as both an actor and a director, which could help him triumph here for LoveMusik.

Best Featured Actress in a Musical
Prediction: Mary Louise Wilson has been working in the New York theater for 50 years, a fact that will help her win for playing bed-bound Big Edie in Act Two of Grey Gardens.
Possible Spoiler: One-named powerhouse Orfeh is a favorite of critics and audiences as Paulette, the lovelorn beautician of Legally Blonde.

Best Book of a Musical
Prediction: Doug Wright for making a moving musical out of the cult documentary Grey Gardens, even if the best work doesn't come until after intermission.
Possible Spoiler: As librettist and lyricst, Steven Sater probably shaped the Spring Awakening score more than collaborator Duncan Sheik so a win here would seem just.

Best Scenic Design of a Play
Prediction: Bob Crowley and Scott Pask, who collaborated on the visually-stunning The Coast of Utopia.
Possible Spoiler: 2006 winner David Gallo The Drowsy Chaperone for his simpler yet emotionally rich work on Radio Golf.

Best Costume Design of a Musical
Prediction: Four-time Tony winner William Ivey Long for Grey Gardens. And not just for his wacky Little Edie creations-the Act One work is stunning as well!
Possible Spoiler: Susan Hilferty, a past winner for Wicked, this time mixing old and new looks for the kids of Spring Awakening.

Surely I'll regret calling this section such a blunt name. But the following nine categories are as close as you can get to locks.

Best Play: The Coast of Utopia, for its scope and success.

Best Musical: Spring Awakening, for its freshness and risk-taking.

Best Revival of a Play: Journey's End, for making audiences listen.

Best Director of a Play: Jack O'Brien, for leading The Coast of Utopia.

Best Director of a Musical: Michael Mayer Spring Awakening, for finding that cast!

Best Score: Spring Awakening's Sheik and Sater, for making showtunes cool.

Best Costume Design of a Play: Catherine Zuber, for the breadth of her Utopia work.

Best Lighting Design of a Play: Brian MacDevitt, Kenneth Posner and Natasha Katz, for their unique collaboration on Utopia.

Best Lighting Design of a Musical: Kevin Adams, for creating stunning Spring Awakening moments.