BEST MUSICAL
Crowd-pleaser In the Heights wins for its fresh outlook, great tunes and lovable all-Latin cast. Risk-taker Passing Strange and Xanadu and its aggressive internet campaign will get votes, but not enough.
BEST PLAY
This non-race will be easily won by Tracy Letts' adored black comedy August: Osage County, which defied the odds by becoming a dramatic sensation and financial hit on Broadway by casting actors over stars.
BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL
Lincoln Center Theater wins yet another Tony for their tony staging of Rodgers and Hammerstein's South Pacific. Roundabout's Sunday in the Park with George and Broadway's fifth Gypsy are both loved, but the competitions too tough.
BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY
Had Macbeth still been running, it could have won the prize. Instead, I'm going with Boeing-Boeing, a light, ridiculous screwball comedy that is making audiences and Tony voters genuinely LOL—a rare achievement on Broadway.
BEST LEADING ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
Daniel Evans is terrific, but there's a lack of late-season support for Sunday in the Park. Instead, the safe bet is Paulo Szot, and his ravishing South Pacific singing. But could Lin-Manuel Miranda pull off a win for In the Heights? Yup.
BEST LEADING ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Both strong choices, Kelli O'Hara South Pacific and Patti LuPone Gypsy were Tony rivals in 2006 with neither winning. This time, LuPone's got it in the bag. The lovely O'Hara will have to wait for her fourth nomination to take a trophy.
BEST LEADING ACTOR IN A PLAY
A close race. There's no one funnier on the stage these days than Mark Rylance, who's been with Boeing-Boeing since its London production. But everyone loves Macbeth's Patrick Stewart. Still, I say Rylance has the minor edge.
BEST LEADING ACTRESS IN A PLAY
It's a very friendly battle between August: Osage County buds Deanna Dunagan and Amy Morton. Although many argue that Morton's is a far more driving force in the drama, Dunagan's monster mom from hell should edge her out.
BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
Voters would enjoy honoring all three Gypsy stars, so I say the ever-solid Boyd Gaines takes his fourth Tony. But it could go many ways, with Passing Strange's Daniel Breaker and South Pacific's Danny Burstein no doubt attracting votes.
BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
A past nominee twice before, Laura Benanti has finally found her Tony-worthy role in her steller turn as shy-gal-turned-stripper Gypsy Rose Lee. She will become the first actress to win for the part, although every other Louise has received a nom.
BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A PLAY
Will Raul Esparza, a surprise non-winner last year for Company, win now for a featured part in an ensemble play that's closed? It could happen, but old-timer Jim Norton has the slight edge for The Seafarer.
BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A PLAY
A hard race to call. I'm going with Rondi Reed of August: Osage County. Other strong possibilities include Mary McCormack, the delightfully abusive German stewardess of Boeing-Boeing and stage regular Martha Plimpton for Top Girls.
BEST OF THE REST
BEST DIRECTION OF A PLAY
Broadway newbie Anna D. Shapiro will rightfully win for pulling together and guiding the top-notch company of August: Osage County. Too bad there's not a way to also honor Maria Aitken, who dazzled with The 39 Steps. Oh well.
BEST DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL
Bartlett Sher, up for The Light in the Piazza in 2005, is the king of gorgeous stage pictures and has it in the bag. If he keeps delivering grand shows that give audiences their money's worth, expect many Tonys in his future as well!
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Yes, Stew wrote some terrific rockin' songs for Passing Strange, but Lin-Manuel Miranda built his sizzling score for In the Heights in a more traditional manner and will win. The addictive new In the Heights double-CD seals the deal.
BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL
Will Douglas Carter Beane's cheeky webisodes about Xanadu's Tony campaign help him? Do voters even watch YouTube? Stew's poetry-fueled storytelling gives Passing Strange its emotional heft and will probably be honored instead.
BEST CHOREOGRAPHY
Rob Ashford's work on Cry-Baby is as entertaining and inventive as we've come to expect from the former chorus boy who previously won for Thoroughly Modern Millie. He deserves the win he'll celebrate on Sunday. Can we clone this guy?
Best Orchestrations: Another In the Heights vs. Passing Strange competition, with Stew & Co. having the slight rock edge.
Best Scenic Design Musical: Michael Yeargan for South Pacific and its one palm tree Though I'd love to see Sunday in the Park with George and its stunning projection design win.
Best Scenic Design Play: Todd Rosenthal's August house setting is simple, elegant and award-worthy.
Best Costume Design Musical: Catherine Zuber for South Pacific
Best Costume Design Play: I suppose the period drama of Katrina Lindsay's Les Liaisons Dangereuses will take it.
Best Lighting Design Musical: Donald Holder for South Pacific
Best Lighting Design Play: Kevin Adams for The 39 Steps
Best Sound Design Musical: Scott Lehrer, wrapping up the South Pacific design sweep.
Best Sound Design Play: Hmm... Mic Pool for The 39 Steps? I guess?