The 2004-2005 season gave us no less than eleven new Broadway musicals. Not only was this a relatively healthy number, but all eleven were book shows, and all but two of them boasted new or partly new scores. Quite obviously, seven of these musicals will have to be left out of the 2005 Tony Awards best-musical category, so let's begin with a quick rundown on how the available titles fared.
With the names Nathan Lane, Stephen Sondheim, and Susan Stroman attached, The Frogs opened at Lincoln Center Theater to a healthy advance sale but disappointing reviews. Thanks to the advance and the subscriber base, The Frogs was able to play out its scheduled limited engagement to good houses. In terms of the Tonys, the key factors that mitigate against a Frogs nomination are the middling critical reception and, more significantly, the fact that the show opened last summer and closed as early as October.
Frank Wildhorn's Dracula was condemned in the press before it even opened, and went on to receive a severe critical drubbing. It managed to survive for some time thereafter, but because of those reviews and the show's short life and commercial failure, few would expect Dracula to receive a best-musical nomination.
Then there's Brooklyn, which also received mostly negative reviews, if not quite as poor as those accorded Dracula. Brooklyn has been this season's little show that wouldn't die, playing since September to what has been, at best, modest business, but refusing to throw in the towel.
The reviews for Little Women were much kinder if not particularly strong, and the show seems to be getting by as a mother-daughter attraction with a recognizable title. Business on Broadway has been moderate, but Little Women has already announced a national tour for next season. In a less fertile season, Little Women would be a decent bet for a best-musical nomination, but it's likely to be overshadowed by the musicals that began to open in March.
But that was not before the arrival of Good Vibrations. Trivia collectors may wish to debate which got worse reviews, Good Vibrations or Dracula. In any case, Good Vibrations was almost universally condemned, and it also fell into the category of jukebox musical, a show that uses pre-existing pop songs for its score. For both of those reasons, Good Vibrations isn't expected to get a nomination, even though it continues to run at moderate business.
Then came a pair of heavyweights, Dirty Rotten Scoundrels and Spamalot. Scoundrels received somewhat mixed reviews, but more favorable than unfavorable ones, and it appears to be faring well at the box office. It's a lightweight, comic crowd-pleaser, and one with an all-new, generally nifty score and several strong performances. It would appear to be guaranteed a best-musical nomination, as is Spamalot.
Prior to its opening, Spamalot was treated like the new Producers or Hairspray, a smash before it was even seen by New York critics. As it turned out, Spamalot's reviews were far more mixed than those that greeted The Producers or Hairspray. But the show appears to be a hit nonetheless, the sort of event that Broadway eagerly awaits and thrives on.
While All Shook Up's reviews were divided, they were, overall, better than had been expected. The show may lose points for being yet another jukebox musical. But it wins points for being a superior example of the genre.
Which leaves three remaining Broadway musical openings. Lincoln Center Theater is presenting The Light in the Piazza, a show that was generally well-received when it played Seattle and Chicago. It appears to be this season's art-house musical, a show with the feel of chamber opera about it and a score perhaps as complex as that of last season's artiest entry, Caroline, or Change. What with the general admiration for the talents of Piazza composer Adam Guettel, long considered by some to be the potential savior of the American musical, most expect Piazza to be at least admired by local critics, giving the show a strong chance at a best-musical nomination.
Then there's Chitty Chitty Bang Bang, which people seem to be rather hastily dismissing in terms of potential awards. Chitty is likely to be a big, old-fashioned, undemanding family entertainment. But Times critic Ben Brantley was unenthusiastic about it when he reviewed it in London, which may be an indication of what to expect from the local critical reception.
The season's final Broadway musical, The 25th Annual Putnam County Spelling Bee, is, of course, a transfer from off-Broadway, and a show that reminds one, in terms of the Tonys, of the power of the unexpected. In last fall's season previews, there was no mention of the show. But in terms of Tony nominations, everything changed when Spelling Bee opened off-Broadway to almost unanimous raves and quickly announced its move to Broadway.
This wasn't good news for such shows as All Shook Up, Little Women, and Chitty Chitty Bang Bang, all fighting for a slot in the musical race. Spelling Bee is assured a nomination, particularly as it will be re-opening near the end of the season to what one would expect to be another batch of strong reviews.
Of course, there could still be surprises ahead, particularly in terms of the critical reception for Piazza and Chitty. There's the possibility that the four best-musical nominees will turn out to be Dirty Rotten Scoundrels, Spamalot, Spelling Bee and Piazza. But if the reception of Piazza is disappointing, the fourth slot could well go to Chitty or All Shook Up.
As far as the winner goes, it looks to be a hotly contested race. Is the biggest commercial hit, Spamalot, the automatic winner? Not necessarily, although Spamalot looks set for a long Broadway run and a healthy life elsewhere. Might Spamalot get a run for its money from the to date best reviewed new musical of the season, Spelling Bee? One can't help recalling last season, when Avenue Q --another off-Broadway transfer that received the best reviews of its season-- walked away with the big prize.