Of course, there's Sutton Foster, the 2002 Tony winner for Thoroughly Modern Millie, who's guaranteed a nomination for her dynamic performance as Jo in Little Women. And although she doesn't make her entrance until almost an hour of playing time has elapsed at Dirty Rotten Scoundrels, Sherie Rene Scott's role of Christine quickly becomes a leading-lady part, and Scott's winning performance should earn her a nomination.
But some have maintained that the front runner could be Victoria Clark, who plays a concerned mother in Lincoln Center Theater's The Light in the Piazza, opening on April 18. Foster's previous Tony win and the size of Scott's role could militate against either of those ladies taking the prize. But Clark appears to have found a part that takes full advantage of her considerable talents. And Clark is a favorite in the community, a performer who has done consistently strong work her Titanic performance was unfairly denied a nomination.
If Foster, Scott, and Clark appear to be likely nominees, who might fill the other two available slots? The Frogs, Pacific Overtures, and La Cage aux Folles possess no leading-lady roles. One assumes that Spamalot's leading lady, Sara Ramirez, will be placed in the featured category and probably win. Similarly, one assumes that the excellent actresses of Spelling Bee will be competing as featured performers.
Christina Applegate in Sweet Charity looks likely for a nomination, though, particularly as she has demonstrated determination above and beyond the call of duty by overcoming a broken foot and a closing notice to make it to Broadway. Charity is nothing if not a vehicle for its leading lady, and Applegate would have to be pretty poor in the title role not to receive a nomination. Note that Broadway's two previous Charitys, Gwen Verdon and Debbie Allen, were both nominated for Tonys, but neither won.
The chances of Melissa Errico in Dracula may have been damaged by the overt failure of her vehicle. The chances of Kate Reinders in Good Vibrations may have been damaged by all the comparisons critics made between Reinders and Kristin Chenoweth, not to mention the poverty of Reinders' vehicle. But there's Erin Dilly, leading lady of Chitty Chitty Bang Bang, even if, judging by the London production, Truly Scrumptious isn't a particularly exciting star part.
Then there's Jenn Gambatese, who carries without visible effort a large central role in All Shook Up. And of course there's Eden Espinosa, who has been shaking the rafters with her high-flying Brooklyn vocals ever since September. One assumes that Espinosa's fellow Brooklyn performer, the strong Ramona Keller, will be considered in the featured category.
So the lead-musical-actress category might be made up of Clark, Foster, Scott, Applegate, and either Gambatese, Dilly, or Espinosa.
Things are somewhat stronger when we turn to the category of lead actor in a musical. Let's say right off the bat that two slots are likely to go to Dirty Rotten Scoundrels' pair of con men, John Lithgow and Norbert Leo Butz. Assuming Spamalot's three leading men Tim Curry, David Hyde Pierce, Hank Azaria are ruled eligible to compete as leads rather than featured they're all starred below the title, at least one of them, probably Curry, is likely for a nomination.
There are obvious potential candidates in the leading men of La Cage aux Folles, Gary Beach and Daniel Davis. At one time, Davis may have had the edge over Beach, as many seemed to feel that Davis made what used to be the second lead in La Cage seem in the revival to be the dominant contribution. The curtain calls seemed to support this: While Beach was billed first in the ads, Davis got the final bow.
However, Davis's recent dismissal from the production could very well affect his chances of getting a nomination. Note that in the original 1983 La Cage, co-stars George Hearn in Beach's role and Gene Barry Davis's were both nominated, and Hearn won.
Cheyenne Jackson makes a striking debut in All Shook Up, and could very well be recognized with a nomination. Still to open is Chitty Chitty Bang Bang, which features the star role of eccentric inventor Caractacus Potts, taken by one of Broadway's most high-powered performers, Raul Esparza. And there's also Denis O'Hare, for his neurotic accountant opposite Applegate in Sweet Charity.
Once again, we'll assume that the gifted men of Spelling Bee will compete as featured performers. We'll also rule out the men from Good Vibrations, as even leading man David Larsen failed to make much of an impression.
Tom Hewitt was good in Dracula, but he may be a victim of the general ludicrousness of his vehicle. Tony winner Cleavant Derricks' Streetsinger has been a mainstay of Brooklyn, in which Kevin Anderson has also figured. B.D. Wong got only a lukewarm reception as the above-the-title star of Pacific Overtures. But we musn't overlook the season's first Broadway musical, The Frogs, in which Nathan Lane provided one of his customarily commanding, comic star turns.
And who is the front runner in the category? At this time, it would appear to be Butz, who has been much admired for previous performances Thou Shalt Not, The Last Five Years but who is giving a breakout performance in Scoundrels. But while co-star Lithgow will almost certainly be among the competion, it's difficult to nail down the other three slots from such names as Jackson, Esparza, Curry, Pierce, Azaria, Beach, Davis, and Lane.