Our Editor-in-Chief Predicts the 2005 Tony Award Winners

Predicting the Tony Awards is an odd process. In the weeks leading up to the big night, there are always categories that are a blur, either with no clear frontrunner or with two worthy nominees both seeming like the likely victor. Then, in the final moments, after every pre-Tony award has been handed out, the focus becomes clearer-or at least the community's opinions merge-and everything seems completely obvious. Then again, Avenue Q beat Wicked last year, so nothing is ever obvious anymore when you're talking Tony. What follows are my cautious predictions for this year's Tony races. I have complete confidence that I will lose my title as New York's top media predictor, which I've held for the past two years. So read on with care!

Best Play: A deserving slam-dunk for John Patrick Shanley's Doubt.

Best Musical: First of all, this is not the two-show race that many journalists have called. Spamalot is the safe bet, but there are plenty of voters who will "vote their heart" and go with Dirty Rotten Scoundrels my personal favorite, The 25th Annual Putnam County Spelling Bee or The Light in the Piazza all have strong support. Still, put your money on Spamalot.

Best Book of a Musical: I suppose I'll go along with my peers and predict a win for Rachel Sheinkin, even if she had a lot of help on her Spelling Bee book.

Best Original Score Written for the Theatre: I'm sending out positive energy for Dirty Rotten Scoundrels composer David Yazbek, who should be on his second win this year after his ridiculous snub for The Full Monty back in 2001. Yet I'm still picking Richard Rodgers' grandson Adam Guettel, who will probably win for the lushness of his score for The Light in the Piazza. But I truly hope I'm wrong.

Best Revival of a Play: It seems unlikely that the closed revival of Twelve Angry Men will top its three still-running competitors, but it's still the safest bet. Glengarry Glen Ross would be my second choice.

Best Revival of a Musical: Tough call, but I think Broadway's first revival of La Cage aux Folles will inch past its second of Sweet Charity.

Best Special Theatrical Event: Billy Crystal's 700 Sundays had this one sewn up back in 2004.

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Play: Even though he just won last year in the featured category last year, Doubt's Brían F. O'Byrne seems the likely victor.

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Play: Kathleen Turner would be deserving of a trophy for Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf? but Cherry Jones's electrifying work as Sister Aloysius in Doubt will grab voters' attention.

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical: Norbert Leo Butz is Dirty Rotten Scoundrels' one sure-fire win.

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical: I love them all, but veteran stage performer Victoria Clark is the critical darling and expected winner. Then again, Sweet Charity's delightful Christina Applegate would be more in line with the string of winners in recent years Sutton Foster, Marissa Jaret Winokur, Idina Menzel. Still, I'm afraid she'll have to settle for close second.

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Play: Michael Stuhlbarg will win for his gut-wrenching work in The Pillowman. Glengarry Glen Ross's Alan Alda and especially Liev Schrieber are both possibilities, but I say Stuhlbarg has the slight edge.

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Play: In a very even race, Doubt's Adriane Lenox has the slight edge for being a reliable stage regular and for delivering one of Shanley's most stirring scenes.

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Musical: Although I predict voter support for many of his well-liked competitors, newcomer Dan Fogler will probably walk his magic foot up to the Radio City podium on Tony night.

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Musical: Sara Ramirez has the juiciest role as Spamalot's sole diva and will probably walk out a Tony winner, even if Chitty Chitty Bang Bang's Jan Maxwell and The Light in the Piazza's Kelli O'Hara are nipping at her heels.

Best Scenic Design of a Play: I loved Scott Pask's simple yet clever work on The Pillowman, but the race is between John Lee Beatty for Doubt and Santo Loquasto for Glengarry Glen Ross. Eenie meenie, minie moe… I'll go with Loquasto.

Best Scenic Design of a Musical: The winner is Michael Yeargan for The Light in the Piazza, which transformed the massive Vivian Beaumont into an Italian street-scene. Poor Anthony Ward and his stunning Chitty Chitty Bang Bang work.

Best Costume Design of a Play: Jess Goldstein had the most work in terms of the sheer number of costumes for Lincoln Center Theater's The Rivals, but will enough voters will remember? Industry favorite Jane Greenwood's work was simpler and subtler for Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf? and will fingers crossed! nab her a first-time win.

Best Costume Design of a Musical: Catherine Zuber probably has a slight edge over Spamalot's Tim Hatley for contributing to the beauty of The Light in the Piazza.

Best Lighting Design of a Play: Brian MacDevitt wins his second Tony for The Pillowman.

Best Lighting Design of a Musical: Ditto the above comments on Zuber for Piazza designer Christopher Akerlind.

Best Direction of a Play: Doug Hughes wins for pulling together the stellar cast of Doubt. Side kudos to John Crowley and his unforgettable staging of The Pillowman.

Best Direction of a Musical: James Lapine will have the support of the New York theater community for his work on The 25th Annual Putnam County Spelling Bee, but Mike Nichols should still triumph for his staging of Spamalot.

Best Choreography: After receiving his fourth and fifth nominations this year, Jerry Mitchell will get his first Tony for his high-kicking, acrobatic work on La Cage aux Folles.

Best Orchestrations: I'd love to see Harold Wheeler take it for Dirty Rotten Scoundrels, but the trio of orchestrators Ted Sperling, Adam Guettel and Bruce Coughlin for Piazza will triumph.

That's it for this year. Here's to shocking surprises, teary acceptance speeches and on-pitch musical performances! Happy Tony Awards!

Paul Wontorek
Editor-in-Chief
Broadway.com