Who Will Get Nominated? Predictions for the 2018 Tony Award Nominations

Tony Award nominations will be announced bright and early on May 1. If you’re like us, you’re already obsessing about which shows, performers and more will be nominated for this year’s trophies. To further feed your fixation, here are our predictions for the 2018 roster of nominees. We kept to the recent eligibility ruling that deemed “in 26 competitive categories, for which there are at least nine candidates, there shall be five nominees in that category.” With that commandment in mind, we took a hard look at the contenders and dove in. By the way, you can be a nominator yourself and pick your favorites for the Broadway.com Audience Choice Awards! Now pull out your crystal ball and read on for our Tony-nominations forecast!

BEST MUSICAL
What a difference a season makes! Last year, 13 musicals battled for the four Best Musical nominee slots, and this year there are only seven. The Band’s Visit and SpongeBob SquarePants are both locks for noms, with Frozen and Mean Girls likely to round out the category. But sentiment for old Broadway could allow Prince of Broadway, a closed greatest-hits revue of Hal Prince’s career, to slip in instead.

BEST PLAY
Ten new plays opened this year, but only one tops everyone’s Tony office-pool list: two-part spectacle Harry Potter and the Cursed Child. As for the rest of the category, look for noms for British imports Lucy Kirkwood’s The Children and Claire van Kampen’s Farinelli and the King. Pulitzer Prize winner Ayad Akhtar’s Junk and Robert Icke and Duncan MacMillan’s stage adaptation of George Orwell’s dystopian novel 1984 are neck and neck for that last slot, but it looks like Junk will prevail.

BEST MUSICAL REVIVAL
With just three well-liked revivals eligible, it’s safe to assume that Carousel, My Fair Lady and Once On This Island are in the race.

BEST PLAY REVIVAL
In a category with 10 entries—many of them acclaimed—we're sure Tony Kushner’s two-part masterwork Angels in America, Edward Albee’s Three Tall Women and Tom Stoppard’s Travesties will have happy producers on nomination morning. It is likely that the season’s final entry, Eugene O’Neill’s epic The Iceman Cometh will also wake up to good news. The long shots here are Kenneth Lonergan’s Lobby Hero and Mark Medoff’s Children of a Lesser God.

BEST LEADING ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
There are five slots and only five eligible performances: Harry Hadden-Paton for My Fair Lady, Joshua Henry for Carousel, Paul Alexander Nolan for Escape to Margaritaville, Tony Shalhoub for The Band’s Visit and Ethan Slater for SpongeBob SquarePants. Rules state Tony nominators will only nominate four, so Nolan will probably suffer for being in a less-acclaimed show.

BEST LEADING ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
This category is tougher, although My Fair Lady's Lauren Ambrose and The Band's Visit's Katrina Lenk are slam dunks. Fresh face Hailey Kilgore will probably make the cut for her stirring Ti Moune in Once On This Island. Although Julie Jordan in Carousel is traditionally a long shot of a role, industry favorite Jessie Mueller will probably land her fourth nomination. That leaves one more slot, going to either to Mean Girls' Taylor Louderman or Frozen princess Patti Murin.

BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
We spy three frontrunners here: the joyful two-time past winner Norbert Leo Butz of My Fair Lady, the hilarious Grey Henson of Mean Girls and the tap-tacular Gavin Lee of SpongeBob SquarePants. Others in the mix are Jelani Alladin of Frozen, Alexander Gemignani of Carousel, Alex Newell of Once On This Island, Ari’el Stachel of The Band’s Visit and Tony Yazbeck for Prince of Broadway.

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Lindsay Mendez is a definite as Carrie Pipperidge in Carousel, the same role that won Audra McDonald her first Tony. Diana Rigg is a class act making a grand return to the stage in My Fair Lady and seems hard to ignore. Hilarious Mean Girls Ashley Park, Kate Rockwell or Barrett Wilbert Weed could both wind up on the list, although Park's role gives her a slight edge. Other options in a rich category: Kenita R. Miller, who breaks hearts in Once On This Island, opera diva Renée Fleming’s well-received Broadway-musical debut in Carousel and Emily Skinner’s diva turn in Prince of Broadway.

BEST LEADING ACTOR IN A PLAY
This is a starry group of contenders! Angels in America’s Andrew Garfield, Travesties’ Tom Hollander, The Iceman Cometh’s Denzel Washington and Harry Potter and the Cursed Child’s Jamie Parker look destined for nominations. The last nominee? Well, if there are awards to be had, Farinelli and the King’s Mark Rylance is always a good choice.

BEST LEADING ACTRESS IN A PLAY
This category has eight eligible contenders, so only four will likely be nominated. Glenda Jackson, who is giving a commanding performance in Three Tall Women, is the definition of a lock. Saint Joan leading lady Condola Rashad and Children of a Lesser God’s Lauren Ridloff will also likely get nods. As for the other slot, it’s a toss-up between Elizabeth McGovern of Time and the Conways, Lili Taylor of Marvin’s Room, Amy Schumer of Meteor Shower and Uma Thurman of The Parisian Woman. We’re giving a paper-thin edge to Taylor here.

BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A PLAY
With a long list of possibilities, there are many ways this category can go, but our money is on Angels in America’s Nathan Lane, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child’s Anthony Boyle and The Iceman Cometh’s David Morse. The final two slots could go to the following: Chris Evans or Brian Tyree Henry of Lobby Hero, Seth Numrich of Travesties or Angels in America’s James McArdle, Nathan Stewart-Jarrett or Lee Pace. Our gut says it’s Numrich and McArdle, but it’s a very close race.

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A PLAY
The most likely nominees for this competitive group are Angels in America’s Denise Gough, Three Tall Women’s Laurie Metcalf and Harry Potter and the Cursed Child’s Noma Dumezweni. The last two slots could go to the following: Three Tall Women's Alison Pill (nominators seem to enjoy giving an entire cast nods), Lobby Hero’s Bel Powley or The Iceman Cometh’s Tammy Blanchard. And we would never count out Meteor Shower’s Laura Benanti!

BEST DIRECTOR OF A MUSICAL
Two talented directors should expect their first Tony noms come Tuesday: David Cromer for The Band’s Visit and Tina Landau for SpongeBob SquarePants. Michael Arden, previously honored for his Spring Awakening revival, is guaranteed a second nod for his wild Once On This Island. In the final two slots will be past winners, probably seasoned favorites Bartlett Sher for My Fair Lady and Carousel’s Jack O’Brien, with Mean Girls’ Casey Nicholaw as the final option.

BEST DIRECTOR OF A PLAY
In a season dominated by well-received revivals, expect the directors of those productions to be represented here with Marianne Elliot for Angels in America, Joe Mantello for Three Tall Women, Patrick Marber for Travesties and George C. Wolfe for The Iceman Cometh all getting nods. Of course, virtually no play category would be complete without a nom, so John Tiffany for Harry Potter and the Cursed Child is also a shoo-in. If the nominators decide to shake things up, look to Lobby Hero helmer Trip Cullman.

BEST CHOREOGRAPHY
A past winner for Newsies, Christopher Gattelli will definitely get a nod for SpongeBob SquarePants with a possible second nomination for My Fair Lady. Newcomers from the dance world Justin Peck of Carousel and Camille A. Brown of Once On This Island will be honored as well. Others in the mix are Steven Hoggett for giving Harry Potter and the Cursed Child its brisk movement, Casey Nicholaw for Mean Girls and Sergio Trujillo, a stylish longshot for his slick Summer moves.

BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL
Mean Girls is guaranteed a nomination here for Tina Fey, adapting her own screenplay. Kyle Jarrow is also a lock for his clever way of bringing the characters of SpongeBob SquarePants to the stage, as is Itamar Moses, who brought quiet intelligence to The Band’s Visit. The fourth slot is harder to predict, but Jennifer Lee’s grand Frozen adaptation will probably beat out the sillier Escape to Margaritaville script by Greg Garcia and Mike O’Malley.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
David Yazbek will (finally) win a Tony for his score of The Band’s Visit, but first, yes, he’ll get nominated! The eclectic batch of rock stars who made SpongeBob SquarePants will also make the cut (included is musical supervisor Tom Kitt, who brilliantly fused the songs into a score). There are only (gasp!) two other eligible musical scores (plays are always possible): Bobby Lopez and Kristen Anderson-Lopez for their new Frozen songs and Jeff Richmond (music) and Nell Benjamin (lyrics) for Mean Girls, so let’s just assume everyone is in.

BEST DESIGN OF A PLAY
This is actually several categories: sets, costumes, lighting and sound. The team behind Harry Potter and the Cursed Child needs to move over their Olivier Awards (yes, they all won) to make room for Tony. Other design teams destined for nods include Angels in America, Three Tall Women, 1984 and The Iceman Cometh’s legendary designers. But really—it’s all about Harry.

BEST DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
This combination of categories (sets, costumes, lighting, sound) is going to make the inventive SpongeBob Squarepants team very proud on nomination morning. The very different work of the My Fair Lady designers is also a sure thing here. Once On This Island’s innovative designs and Carousel’s accomplished team will also likely get recognition.

That's it! Best of luck to all of this year's hopefuls!